REGULAR SEASON // WEEK 7 // DEFENSE STREAMING ENGINE
STREAM//DST
The market sets the scoring-environment prior. Waiverlord then attacks the fantasy events the point spread does not price directly: sacks, takeaways, pressure, quarterback fragility, protection continuity and asymmetric ceiling. The board is ranked for fantasy utility, not for picking the winner of the football game.
dst-stream-v0.1.0dst-market-edge-v0.2.0QB FRAGILITY LIVEOL CONTINUITY LIVEUPDATED Oct 20, 3:43 PM UTC20,000 SIMS / MATCHUP
MARKET-ANCHORED // FANTASY-OPTIMIZED
STREAMERS
The point projection is anchored to the market. EDGE ranking adds Waiverlord's sack, turnover and full-distribution signal around that prior. v0.3 diagnostics now track expected pressure volume, QB fragility and offensive-line disruption prospectively.
RANKD/STOPPPROJFLOORCEIL10+EDGEMKT
#1HOUHOMENYG7.24.011.031%98#1
HOU projects for 2.8 sacks against NYG; the pressure path is the cleanest source of weekly points.
COLLAPSE 81PASS RUSH +TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +PREY MATCHUP +
7.2 MARKET ANCHOR7.9 WL RAW+0.7 MODEL GAP2.9 EXP SACKS1.5 EXP TO46.4 DROPBACKS8.0 PRESSURES57 QB FRAGILITY11 OL DISRUPTION81 COLLAPSE74 PREY99 HOLD
#2MINHOMEIND6.85.011.034%96#3
MIN projects for 2.8 sacks against IND; the pressure path is the cleanest source of weekly points.
WL EDGE +1 RANKCOLLAPSE 73PASS RUSH +TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +
6.8 MARKET ANCHOR8.3 WL RAW+1.5 MODEL GAP2.8 EXP SACKS1.7 EXP TO42.8 DROPBACKS8.3 PRESSURES23 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION73 COLLAPSE67 PREY96 HOLD
#3NYJHOMEMIA6.93.09.017%89#2
MIA creates a live turnover environment, with 1.2 takeaways projected for NYJ.
WL EDGE -1 RANKQB FRAGILITY 78TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +PREY MATCHUP +
6.9 MARKET ANCHOR6.2 WL RAW-0.7 MODEL GAP2.0 EXP SACKS1.2 EXP TO31.1 DROPBACKS5.5 PRESSURES78 QB FRAGILITY11 OL DISRUPTION58 COLLAPSE80 PREY64 HOLD
#4DENAWAYARI6.04.010.025%89#5
ARI creates a live turnover environment, with 1.5 takeaways projected for DEN.
WL EDGE +1 RANKCOLLAPSE 68TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +
6.0 MARKET ANCHOR7.1 WL RAW+1.1 MODEL GAP2.5 EXP SACKS1.5 EXP TO42.2 DROPBACKS7.8 PRESSURES35 QB FRAGILITY6 OL DISRUPTION68 COLLAPSE49 PREY84 HOLD
#5CLEAWAYTEN6.43.09.017%84#4
TEN creates a live turnover environment, with 1.2 takeaways projected for CLE.
WL EDGE -1 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +
6.4 MARKET ANCHOR6.2 WL RAW-0.1 MODEL GAP2.0 EXP SACKS1.2 EXP TO31.6 DROPBACKS5.7 PRESSURES56 QB FRAGILITY3 OL DISRUPTION53 COLLAPSE63 PREY79 HOLD
#6TENHOMECLE5.83.09.018%83#8
TEN projects for 2.8 sacks against CLE; the pressure path is the cleanest source of weekly points.
WL EDGE +2 RANKQB FRAGILITY 75PASS RUSH +TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +PREY MATCHUP +
5.8 MARKET ANCHOR6.3 WL RAW+0.6 MODEL GAP2.8 EXP SACKS1.0 EXP TO33.0 DROPBACKS6.7 PRESSURES75 QB FRAGILITY6 OL DISRUPTION52 COLLAPSE75 PREY93 HOLD
#7KCAWAYSEA4.94.010.023%76#13
SEA creates a live turnover environment, with 1.7 takeaways projected for KC.
WL EDGE +6 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +PREY MATCHUP +
4.9 MARKET ANCHOR6.9 WL RAW+2.0 MODEL GAP2.4 EXP SACKS1.7 EXP TO37.5 DROPBACKS6.9 PRESSURES69 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION54 COLLAPSE79 PREY70 HOLD
#8PITAWAYNO5.63.09.016%74#10
NO creates a live turnover environment, with 1.4 takeaways projected for PIT.
WL EDGE +2 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +
5.6 MARKET ANCHOR5.9 WL RAW+0.3 MODEL GAP1.9 EXP SACKS1.4 EXP TO37.4 DROPBACKS4.7 PRESSURES49 QB FRAGILITY10 OL DISRUPTION56 COLLAPSE55 PREY90 HOLD
#9CARHOMETB5.63.09.014%73#9
TB creates a live turnover environment, with 1.1 takeaways projected for CAR.
QB FRAGILITY 71TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +
5.6 MARKET ANCHOR5.7 WL RAW+0.1 MODEL GAP2.3 EXP SACKS1.1 EXP TO38.2 DROPBACKS6.6 PRESSURES71 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION60 COLLAPSE66 PREY35 HOLD
#10DALAWAYPHI5.82.08.011%70#6
PHI is projected around 19.9 points, keeping the scoring bands favorable for DAL.
WL EDGE -4 RANKQB FRAGILITY 82LOW IMPLIED TOTAL +OL INJURY +
5.8 MARKET ANCHOR5.3 WL RAW-0.5 MODEL GAP2.4 EXP SACKS0.8 EXP TO40.2 DROPBACKS5.7 PRESSURES82 QB FRAGILITY22 OL DISRUPTION61 COLLAPSE51 PREY49 HOLD
#11SFAWAYATL4.42.08.013%65#15
ATL creates a live turnover environment, with 1.3 takeaways projected for SF.
WL EDGE +4 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +
4.4 MARKET ANCHOR5.3 WL RAW+0.9 MODEL GAP2.1 EXP SACKS1.3 EXP TO35.0 DROPBACKS6.6 PRESSURES43 QB FRAGILITY5 OL DISRUPTION59 COLLAPSE64 PREY76 HOLD
#12SEAHOMEKC5.82.07.09%63#7
KC creates a live turnover environment, with 1.1 takeaways projected for SEA.
WL EDGE -5 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW SACK UPSIDEOFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
5.8 MARKET ANCHOR4.7 WL RAW-1.1 MODEL GAP1.6 EXP SACKS1.1 EXP TO33.5 DROPBACKS5.1 PRESSURES36 QB FRAGILITY15 OL DISRUPTION54 COLLAPSE34 PREY61 HOLD
#13LARAWAYLV5.22.08.014%62#11
LV creates a live turnover environment, with 1.4 takeaways projected for LAR.
WL EDGE -2 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +
5.2 MARKET ANCHOR5.5 WL RAW+0.3 MODEL GAP1.8 EXP SACKS1.4 EXP TO41.3 DROPBACKS4.9 PRESSURES50 QB FRAGILITY18 OL DISRUPTION60 COLLAPSE40 PREY73 HOLD
#14CHIHOMENE4.42.09.014%62#14
NE creates a live turnover environment, with 1.3 takeaways projected for CHI.
TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +
4.4 MARKET ANCHOR5.6 WL RAW+1.2 MODEL GAP2.2 EXP SACKS1.3 EXP TO35.6 DROPBACKS5.3 PRESSURES50 QB FRAGILITY33 OL DISRUPTION56 COLLAPSE44 PREY81 HOLD
#15MIAAWAYNYJ5.22.07.09%62#12
NYJ creates a live turnover environment, with 1 takeaways projected for MIA.
WL EDGE -3 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +OL INJURY +
5.2 MARKET ANCHOR4.9 WL RAW-0.4 MODEL GAP1.9 EXP SACKS1.0 EXP TO30.1 DROPBACKS5.5 PRESSURES55 QB FRAGILITY11 OL DISRUPTION48 COLLAPSE63 PREY26 HOLD
#16NOHOMEPIT4.32.08.014%59#18
PIT creates a live turnover environment, with 1.3 takeaways projected for NO.
WL EDGE +2 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +SCORING ENVIRONMENT RISK
4.3 MARKET ANCHOR5.5 WL RAW+1.3 MODEL GAP2.5 EXP SACKS1.3 EXP TO39.7 DROPBACKS5.8 PRESSURES60 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION51 COLLAPSE44 PREY87 HOLD
#17INDAWAYMIN4.32.07.09%48#17
MIN creates a live turnover environment, with 1 takeaways projected for IND.
TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +
4.3 MARKET ANCHOR4.6 WL RAW+0.3 MODEL GAP1.9 EXP SACKS1.0 EXP TO29.9 DROPBACKS4.4 PRESSURES43 QB FRAGILITY14 OL DISRUPTION44 COLLAPSE58 PREY20 HOLD
#18NEAWAYCHI3.32.08.013%47#26
CHI creates a live turnover environment, with 1.3 takeaways projected for NE.
WL EDGE +8 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +SCORING ENVIRONMENT RISK
3.3 MARKET ANCHOR5.5 WL RAW+2.2 MODEL GAP2.4 EXP SACKS1.3 EXP TO37.0 DROPBACKS6.5 PRESSURES34 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION53 COLLAPSE56 PREY55 HOLD
#19TBAWAYCAR4.32.07.09%46#19
CAR creates a live turnover environment, with 1 takeaways projected for TB.
QB FRAGILITY 74TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +OFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
4.3 MARKET ANCHOR4.6 WL RAW+0.3 MODEL GAP2.1 EXP SACKS1.0 EXP TO39.2 DROPBACKS5.2 PRESSURES74 QB FRAGILITY25 OL DISRUPTION50 COLLAPSE30 PREY52 HOLD
#20BALHOMECIN4.12.08.011%44#20
CIN creates a live turnover environment, with 1.1 takeaways projected for BAL.
TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +OFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
4.1 MARKET ANCHOR5.1 WL RAW+1.0 MODEL GAP2.2 EXP SACKS1.1 EXP TO40.7 DROPBACKS6.5 PRESSURES33 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION60 COLLAPSE32 PREY43 HOLD
#21DETHOMEGB3.82.07.09%42#22
GB creates a live turnover environment, with 1 takeaways projected for DET.
WL EDGE +1 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +SCORING ENVIRONMENT RISKOFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
3.8 MARKET ANCHOR4.7 WL RAW+0.9 MODEL GAP2.4 EXP SACKS1.0 EXP TO40.0 DROPBACKS7.3 PRESSURES56 QB FRAGILITY4 OL DISRUPTION62 COLLAPSE36 PREY38 HOLD
#22PHIHOMEDAL4.12.07.010%41#21
DAL creates a live turnover environment, with 1.2 takeaways projected for PHI.
WL EDGE -1 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW SACK UPSIDEOFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
4.1 MARKET ANCHOR4.7 WL RAW+0.6 MODEL GAP1.6 EXP SACKS1.2 EXP TO41.9 DROPBACKS4.0 PRESSURES40 QB FRAGILITY4 OL DISRUPTION48 COLLAPSE33 PREY40 HOLD
#23ARIHOMEDEN4.32.07.08%41#16
DEN creates a live turnover environment, with 1 takeaways projected for ARI.
WL EDGE -7 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +LOW SACK UPSIDEOFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
4.3 MARKET ANCHOR4.4 WL RAW+0.1 MODEL GAP1.8 EXP SACKS1.0 EXP TO30.9 DROPBACKS4.3 PRESSURES41 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION45 COLLAPSE38 PREY58 HOLD
#24CINAWAYBAL3.22.08.011%38#27
BAL creates a live turnover environment, with 1.1 takeaways projected for CIN.
WL EDGE +3 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +SCORING ENVIRONMENT RISK
3.2 MARKET ANCHOR5.2 WL RAW+2.0 MODEL GAP2.5 EXP SACKS1.1 EXP TO31.5 DROPBACKS5.9 PRESSURES46 QB FRAGILITY4 OL DISRUPTION50 COLLAPSE43 PREY67 HOLD
#25LVHOMELAR3.52.07.09%36#23
LAR creates a live turnover environment, with 1.1 takeaways projected for LV.
WL EDGE -2 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +SCORING ENVIRONMENT RISKOFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
3.5 MARKET ANCHOR4.7 WL RAW+1.1 MODEL GAP2.1 EXP SACKS1.1 EXP TO41.0 DROPBACKS6.7 PRESSURES24 QB FRAGILITY12 OL DISRUPTION55 COLLAPSE31 PREY32 HOLD
#26NYGAWAYHOU3.41.06.05%27#24
NYG has a balanced path through sacks, takeaways and points allowed, without relying on a defensive touchdown.
WL EDGE -2 RANKLOW SACK UPSIDESCORING ENVIRONMENT RISK
3.4 MARKET ANCHOR3.6 WL RAW+0.2 MODEL GAP1.8 EXP SACKS0.9 EXP TO31.4 DROPBACKS3.5 PRESSURES41 QB FRAGILITY3 OL DISRUPTION42 COLLAPSE23 PREY23 HOLD
#27ATLHOMESF3.31.07.06%26#25
SF creates a live turnover environment, with 1 takeaways projected for ATL.
WL EDGE -2 RANKTURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +SCORING ENVIRONMENT RISKOFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
3.3 MARKET ANCHOR3.9 WL RAW+0.7 MODEL GAP1.9 EXP SACKS1.0 EXP TO30.5 DROPBACKS5.0 PRESSURES15 QB FRAGILITY1 OL DISRUPTION47 COLLAPSE32 PREY29 HOLD
#28GBAWAYDET2.71.07.09%25#28
DET creates a live turnover environment, with 1.1 takeaways projected for GB.
TURNOVER ENVIRONMENT +SCORING ENVIRONMENT RISKOFFENSE RESISTS STREAMING
2.7 MARKET ANCHOR4.4 WL RAW+1.7 MODEL GAP2.3 EXP SACKS1.1 EXP TO38.3 DROPBACKS6.1 PRESSURES27 QB FRAGILITY4 OL DISRUPTION52 COLLAPSE18 PREY46 HOLD
OFFENSE VULNERABILITY
PREY BOARD
Which offenses are worth attacking with a fantasy defense this week.
1
MIAvs NYJ
802.0 sacks1.2 TO17.7 pts2
SEAvs KC
792.4 sacks1.7 TO21.3 pts3
CLEvs TEN
752.8 sacks1.0 TO20.0 pts4
NYGvs HOU
742.9 sacks1.5 TO18.2 pts5
INDvs MIN
672.8 sacks1.7 TO17.5 pts6
TBvs CAR
662.3 sacks1.1 TO20.0 pts7
ATLvs SF
642.1 sacks1.3 TO24.3 pts8
NYJvs MIA
631.9 sacks1.0 TO21.4 pts9
TENvs CLE
632.0 sacks1.2 TO17.5 pts10
MINvs IND
581.9 sacks1.0 TO23.5 pts11
CHIvs NE
562.4 sacks1.3 TO25.7 pts12
NOvs PIT
551.9 sacks1.4 TO21.4 pts13
PHIvs DAL
512.4 sacks0.8 TO19.9 pts14
ARIvs DEN
492.5 sacks1.5 TO19.4 pts15
NEvs CHI
442.2 sacks1.3 TO24.4 pts16
PITvs NO
442.5 sacks1.3 TO25.3 pts17
BALvs CIN
432.5 sacks1.1 TO26.0 pts18
LVvs LAR
401.8 sacks1.4 TO22.4 pts19
DENvs ARI
381.8 sacks1.0 TO23.9 pts20
GBvs DET
362.4 sacks1.0 TO25.3 pts21
KCvs SEA
341.6 sacks1.1 TO21.9 pts22
DALvs PHI
331.6 sacks1.2 TO24.8 pts23
CINvs BAL
322.2 sacks1.1 TO24.3 pts24
SFvs ATL
321.9 sacks1.0 TO27.4 pts25
LARvs LV
312.1 sacks1.1 TO26.9 pts26
CARvs TB
302.1 sacks1.0 TO25.0 pts27
HOUvs NYG
231.8 sacks0.9 TO27.2 pts28
DETvs GB
182.3 sacks1.1 TO28.1 ptsNEXT THREE WEEKS
LOOKAHEAD
Use the hold score to get ahead of next Tuesday instead of paying for last Sunday.
#1HOU99W7 NYG · 7.2W9 LAC · 9.1
#2MIN96W7 IND · 6.8W8 DET · 8.4W9 BUF · 8.5
#3TEN93W7 CLE · 5.8W8 CIN · 8.2
#4PIT90W7 NO · 5.6W8 CLE · 8.4
#5NO87W7 PIT · 4.3W9 CLE · 8.6
#6DEN84W7 ARI · 6.0W8 KC · 8.0W9 CAR · 8.8
#7CHI81W7 NE · 4.4W8 SEA · 9.9W9 TB · 8.9
#8CLE79W7 TEN · 6.4W8 PIT · 8.7W9 NO · 8.4
#9SF76W7 ATL · 4.4W9 LV · 8.1
#10LAR73W7 LV · 5.2W8 LAC · 9.1W9 WAS · 7.6
#11KC70W7 SEA · 4.9W8 DEN · 7.0W9 NYJ · 7.7
#12CIN67W7 BAL · 3.2W8 TEN · 8.2W9 ATL · 9.1
#13NYJ64W7 MIA · 6.9W8 LV · 7.8W9 KC · 7.1
#14SEA61W7 KC · 5.8W8 CHI · 8.8W9 ARI · 8.3
#15ARI58W7 DEN · 4.3W8 DAL · 8.3W9 SEA · 9.5
#16NE55W7 CHI · 3.3W8 MIA · 8.0W9 GB · 7.8
#17TB52W7 CAR · 4.3W8 ATL · 8.2W9 CHI · 8.5
#18DAL49W7 PHI · 5.8W8 ARI · 7.4W9 IND · 8.0
#19GB46W7 DET · 2.7W8 CAR · 8.3W9 NE · 8.3
#20BAL43W7 CIN · 4.1W8 BUF · 7.8W9 JAX · 7.5
#21PHI40W7 DAL · 4.1W8 WAS · 7.2W9 NYG · 9.0
#22DET38W7 GB · 3.8W8 MIN · 7.9W9 MIA · 7.9
#23CAR35W7 TB · 5.6W8 GB · 7.2W9 DEN · 6.6
#24LV32W7 LAR · 3.5W8 NYJ · 7.6W9 SF · 7.2
#25ATL29W7 SF · 3.3W8 TB · 8.3W9 CIN · 7.6
#26MIA26W7 NYJ · 5.2W8 NE · 7.3W9 DET · 6.7
#27NYG23W7 HOU · 3.4W9 PHI · 7.5
#28IND20W7 MIN · 4.3W8 JAX · 6.9W9 DAL · 7.7
The live point forecast remains market-anchored because historical validation showed the market was better calibrated than Waiverlord's standalone mean. Waiverlord's edge layer adds recency-weighted team evidence, injuries, simulated sacks and takeaways, opponent vulnerability and tail outcomes. The v0.3 instrumentation now records game-script pressure opportunity, QB fragility and offensive-line continuity on every immutable production receipt so those signals can earn their way into the ranking instead of being hand-waved into it.
Floor, ceiling and 10+ probability remain the raw Monte Carlo distribution around Waiverlord's football model. New v0.3 diagnostics are live and visible, but they do not silently rewrite the certified ranking weights until prospective receipts prove incremental value.